Summary
- Index Close: 21,318.17 (▼0.45%)
- The Nasdaq-100 pulled back modestly, trading between 21,296.51 and 21,508.08, a range that reflects ongoing intraday volatility amid mixed investor sentiment.
- The index remains just 3% shy of its all-time closing high of 22,175.60 (Feb 19, 2025), suggesting a pause within an uptrend rather than a trend reversal.
- Price action hovers near the 50-day moving average, indicating a potential consolidation phase. A clear move above or below this level could set the tone for the next directional leg.
- The RSI is approaching overbought territory, signaling that recent bullish momentum may be overextended and vulnerable to a short-term correction.
Fundamental Drivers
Tech Earnings on a High Note
- Nvidia led the charge with a blowout earnings report, posting EPS of $0.96 and revenue of $44.1 billion, well above expectations. This continues to anchor bullish sentiment in the broader tech space.
Trade Policy Uncertainty Returns
- A federal appeals court has temporarily reinstated global tariffs, adding uncertainty for multinational tech giants with global supply chains.
Economic Data: Strength with Shadows
- Robust U.S. consumer confidence data points to a resilient economy, but inflation concerns and potential Fed policy pivots continue to weigh on market forecasts.
Short-Term Outlook
The Nasdaq-100 remains on firm footing technically but is testing the limits of its rally as it nears record highs. The reinstated tariffs and looming monetary policy shifts could inject volatility, especially if economic data wavers.
Traders should watch earnings releases, tariff developments, and Fed commentary closely, as the next 1–2 weeks could define whether the index breaks out or pulls back for air.
US100 – H4 Timeframe
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The break above the previous high, indicated by the horizontal arrow on the 4-hour timeframe chart of US100, was the initial sign of bullish prevalence. Following that impulse, we see a rally-base-rally demand zone sitting atop the 76% Fibonacci retracement level and an SBR pattern with the same rally-base-rally demand order block. The highlighted zone would serve as the region for entry, albeit based on proper confirmation.
Analyst's Expectations:
Direction: Bullish
Target- 21829.51
Invalidation- 20670.01
CONCLUSION
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