Fundamental Analysis
Main Price Drivers
The dovish narrative from the Federal Reserve has strengthened following several key statements. Christopher Waller warned that the U.S. labor market remains “still weak and near a point of stagnation,” adding that the narrow split in FOMC voting could impact monetary-policy credibility. John C. Williams, President of the New York Fed, noted that he still sees “room for an additional adjustment in the target range for the federal funds rate to bring policy closer to neutral.”
The October meeting minutes show that several members supported rate cuts, while others preferred to keep rates steady due to persistent inflation. Currently, the market assigns a 73% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, reflecting a significant shift in monetary-policy expectations.
This environment supports a technical rebound in the Nasdaq-100 (US100), as the prospect of lower rates reduces capital costs for tech companies and supports valuations. However, the recovery may be limited: without weaker macro data or strong earnings surprises, upward momentum could fade. Traders should closely monitor U.S. macro indicators and upcoming corporate reports, as confirmation of cuts—or new signs of economic slowdown—will be crucial for sustaining the recovery, while unexpected economic strength could revive downside pressure.
Technical Analysis
US100 | H4
The trend remains bearish, with the last daily resistance located at 25263.26, meaning that as long as this level is not broken, the bearish bias remains intact. At the same time, the current correction broke last week’s supply zone at 24646.61, leaving behind a significant cluster of buying volume around the weekly open 24437.35, which signals bullish strength.
Considering the current concentration of weekly volume (POCs) around 24893.64, we assess three possible scenarios:
Bearish Scenario
If price moves and remains below the POCs, we expect selling pressure toward 24685. If this zone breaks decisively, the decline could extend toward 24437, where buyers may re-enter the market.
Anticipated Bullish Scenario
If price breaks and holds above the POCs and the daily open at 24923.66, we expect an advance at least toward the selling volume node at 25109.80. Only if this level is decisively broken do we consider the possibility of an extension toward resistance 25263.26. A confirmed breakout (two higher highs) would signal the beginning of an intraday and daily bullish reversal, with potential extension toward the uncovered POC and supply zone at 25561.41.
Post-Correction Bullish Scenario
Wait for a pullback toward 24671 or 24440, both zones with potential to reactivate buyers with targets at 25110 and 25263 in extension.
