Gold Holds Above $3,300 on Tariff Fears (April 24)

Summary

• Current Price: ~$3,320
• Support Levels:
  • $3,300: Key psychological level
  • $3,288: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
  • $3,260: Recent swing low
  • $3,225–$3,200: 50% Fibo & near-term top confirmation if broken
• Resistance Levels:
  • $3,367–$3,368: 23.6% Fibo and key pivot
  • $3,400: Round-number target
  • $3,425–$3,427: Intermediate resistance
  • $3,500: Major psychological ceiling

Gold has bounced after holding the 38.2% Fibo support at $3,288, but upward momentum is currently stalling at the $3,367–$3,368 zone. On the daily chart, oscillators remain bullish, suggesting further upside if $3,368 is reclaimed.

Fundamental Factors Affecting Gold

1. Safe-Haven Demand Reignited
   • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s firm stance on China tariffs has dimmed hopes for a quick deal. This revives demand for gold as a hedge against policy unpredictability and global trade disruptions.
   • Trump’s return to reciprocal tariffs rhetoric reinforces the narrative of prolonged trade tensions.
2. Fed Policy Outlook Turning Dovish
   • The Fed’s Beige Book pointed to slowing consumer demand, a cooling labor market, and business uncertainty.
   • Markets now price in at least three Fed rate cuts by year-end, beginning in June, supporting gold’s non-yielding appeal.
3. Mixed Economic Signals
   • S&P Global’s PMI: Slowing service sector activity raises concerns about broader demand.
   • Durable Goods and Jobless Claims (due today) may provide near-term direction.
4. US Dollar Weakness
   • The USD has pulled back modestly after a two-day recovery.
   • A weaker dollar is gold-positive, reducing the opportunity cost of holding bullion for international investors.
5. Tempered Risk Appetite
   • Despite a general risk-on mood, uncertainty around Fed independence, tariffs, and global growth risks keep markets cautious.
   • This limits risk asset upside and provides underlying support to gold.

Key Takeaway for Traders

• Bullish Bias Holds, but $3,368 is a key ceiling in the short term.
• Traders should watch for a clean break above $3,368 to target $3,400 and $3,425.
• Failure to hold $3,300–$3,288 opens the door to $3,260 and $3,225 on deeper correction.
• For Forex traders:
  • A weakening USD, dovish Fed bets, and persistent trade uncertainty fuel XAUUSD gains.
  • If US data disappoints, gold may push higher.
  • However, stronger-than-expected figures could stall or reverse gold’s momentum by firming USD and risk sentiment.

XAUUSD – H2 Timeframe

Reacting to the trendline support, the price action on the 2-hour timeframe chart of XAUUSD gave a bullish break of structure with a gap. This shows that we can expect a show of strength from the highlighted demand zone.

XAUUSD – H1 Timeframe

The 1-hour timeframe chart of XAUUSD shows the SBR pattern formed as the price movement pushed into the 100-period moving average support and the trendline support. In conjunction with the higher timeframe criteria, my conclusion favors continued bullish price action.

Analyst’s Expectations: 

Direction: Bullish

Target- 3409.99

Invalidation- 3259.80

CONCLUSION

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