GBPCAD Outlook (13th March)

GBPUSD remains steady near 1.2650, with resistance at 1.2700 and support at 1.2600. The pair consolidates as traders assess inflation expectations and the Bank of England’s (BOE) policy direction.

Fundamental Factors Affecting GBP

BOE’s Pay Decision: The BOE will give staff a 3% pay rise, matching inflation but lagging behind the expected 4% wage growth in the broader economy. This signals a cautious approach to budget management.
Inflation Outlook: The BOE expects inflation to rise to 3.7% later this year, driven by energy and other costs, which could influence future rate decisions.
Labor Market & Public Sentiment: The central bank continues to face challenges in talent retention amid pay dissatisfaction, past strike threats, and backlash over previous calls for wage restraint.
Governor’s Stance: Andrew Bailey is cautious, refusing pay raises while navigating economic and political pressures.

Market Reaction & Outlook

The market remains focused on inflation risks and the BOE’s policy response. If inflation rises beyond expectations, traders may delay pricing in rate cuts, supporting GBP in the near term. However, broader economic uncertainty could limit gains.

Key Takeaway for Traders

GBPUSD is in a neutral range, with potential upside if inflation pressures force a more hawkish BOE stance. Watch for key resistance at 1.2700 and upcoming economic data for directional cues.

GBPCAD – H4 Timeframe

Following the bullish double break of structure on the 4-hour timeframe chart of GBPCAD, we see price sliding back towards the drop-base-rally demand zone that initiated the bullish momentum with the trendline support just below the same highlighted area of demand.

GBPCAD – H1 Timeframe

The 200-period moving average on the 1-hour timeframe chart of GBPCAD plays a critical role in confirming the possibility of a bullish outcome at the retest of the demand zone. Coupled with the 4-hour timeframe trendline support and the 88% Fibonacci retracement level, a bullish sentiment is the logical conclusion.

Analyst’s Expectations:

Direction: Bullish

Invalidation- 1.84800

Target- 1.87794

CONCLUSION

You can access more trade ideas and prompt market updates on the telegram channel.

Trading foreign currencies on margin involves significant risks and may not be suitable for everyone, as high leverage can increase both potential gains and losses. Before entering the foreign exchange market, it is essential to evaluate your investment goals, personal experience, and risk tolerance.

Share with friends:

Author: Adetola-Freeman Ogunkunle

Open an FBS account

By registering, you accept FBS Customer Agreement conditions and FBS Privacy Policy and assume all risks inherent with trading operations on the world financial markets.