Fundamental Analysis
USDJPY: Dollar Sinks as Yen Reclaims Safe-Haven Status
USDJPY has fallen from 144.7 to 143.1 since 24 June, dragged lower by two forces: the Israel-Iran cease-fire, which revived demand for defensive assets like the yen, and fresh political pressure on the Federal Reserve after U.S. media reported that Donald Trump is weighing the removal of Jerome Powell before 2026. That potential blow to Fed independence drove the dollar index to a three-year low and pulled the 10-year Treasury yield down toward 4.25 %, accelerating dollar selling.
In the near term, the final Q1 GDP print (consensus –0.2 %) and, above all, tomorrow’s May PCE reading are the next catalysts. CME FedWatch futures now price an 87.41 % chance of a 25-bp cut in September, up sharply from 63 % a week ago. A soft inflation print would reinforce the bearish bias and could push the pair to test 142.5, while a hotter PCE could let the dollar rebound toward 145—yet the underlying flight to safety keeps the yen in the driving seat.
Technical Analysis — USDJPY | H3
Supply Zones: 144.79 | 145.62 | 146.37
Demand Zone: 143.00
The pair has been trading inside a descending linear-regression channel since January and is showing weakness near its upper boundary, hinting at an intraday bearish reversal. Price action confirms this view after breaking the last key swing support at 145.12 with two successive lower lows.
Under this scenario, expect a pullback—price has reached a demand zone—toward the broken support at 144.51 and, with high probability, the Asian POC at 144.79, where fresh selling could target 143.00, the daily support at 142.79, and May’s support at 142.11.
Given that the last validated resistance sits at 145.95, any bounce toward 144.00—or even yesterday’s uncovered POC at 145.62—looks corrective and offers new short opportunities.
Technical Summary
Bullish: Buy above 144.16 for 144.51 · 144.80 · 145.00 intraday; if momentum persists, watch 145.62 for fresh shorts.
Bearish: Sell intraday below 145.00 for 143.00 and 142.00.
Exhaustion/Reversal Pattern (ERP): Always wait for ERP confirmation on M5 at the key zones (see 👉 https://t.me/spanishfbs/2258).
Untraded POC: The Point of Control marks the highest-volume level; after a down-move it acts as resistance, after an up-move as support.
